2021 to 2022 winter forecast washington state

Part I: Month-to-month variability. Differences between the two periods for the precipitation composites are much smaller and therefore are not shown here. Sign in. Fire Weather The CPC winter temperature forecasts to the right show the most likely outcome where there is greater confidence, but this is not the only possible outcome. La Nia episodes typically last 9-12 months. The snowiest periods will be in mid-November, late December, early to mid-January, and early February. Image Credit: Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington. Further north and west, expect 20-30 inches or more in Frederick, West Virginia and along the Interstate 81 corridor. The early arrival of the winter storms will also spell an end to the active wildfire season for the region as rain and snow help to douse any flames. temperature and precipitation over the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. After our second-warmest October on record, the first week of November delivered a chill, offering a taste of the inevitable. Other climate phenomena, such as the Arctic Oscillation or the Madden Julian Oscillation, as well as the random nature of weather, can also play a large part in how winter turns out. Since long-range forecasts are rarely accurate or useful for finding . And 6 of the 11 events produced wet conditions in the Ohio Valley, which is slightly more than half, but far from a guarantee. In the maps, the CPC forecasts show the probability of the favored categoryonly when there is a favored category;otherwise, they show EC (equal chances). The official Climate Prediction Center outlook is similar to these model forecasts, calling for a 70% chance for La Nia to continue through the 2021-2022 winter season. However, no two La Nia winters will have identical temperature and precipitation patterns across the United States. Puget Sound Chinook stock analysis and modeling toolPuget Sound coho stock analysis and modeling toolPuget Sound Chinook model (April 4, 2023)Puget Sound Chinook model (April 2, 2023)Puget Sound Chinook model (March 30, 2023)Puget Sound Chinook model (March 29, 2023), Monofilament recovery and recycling program, North of Falcon background information and glossary, 2023 statewide chum, pink, and sockeye forecasts, 2023 Columbia River fall Chinook forecast, 2023 Columbia River spring/summerforecasts, Puget Sound Chinook stock analysis and modeling tool, Puget Sound coho stock analysis and modeling tool, Puget Sound Chinook model (April 4, 2023), Puget Sound Chinook model (April 2, 2023), Puget Sound Chinook model (March 30, 2023), Puget Sound Chinook model (March 29, 2023), 2022 Columbia River spring-summer-fall forecasts. As we move to January, the prospects for rain will increase for California - good news for areas of the state where wildfires have raged. La Nina is back with cooler, wetter weather for Western Washington, but it might be weaker this year Seattle Post-Intelligencer Logo Hourly Weather On the other hand, a positive AO and NAO combination typically supports a warmer pattern, with a storm track that will often go to our west. We do take these long-term trends into account in our winter outlooks. Off our coastline, we have what has now become a very warm Atlantic Ocean. For temperature, theres a strong tendency for temperatures to be below average across some of the West and North, particularly in the Northern Plains, with a weaker signal for above-average temperatures in the Southeast, as shown in the image below. Preparedness The MJO can modulate the timing and strength of monsoons (e.g., Jones and Carvalho, 2002; Lavender and Matthews, 2009), influence tropical cyclone numbers and strength in nearly all ocean basins (e.g., Maloney and Hartmann, 2000), and result in jet stream changes that can lead to cold air outbreaks, extreme heat events, and flooding rains over the United States and North America (Higgins et al. I have serious doubts about that. La Nia is associated with aretracted jet stream over the North Pacific Ocean. This was due to trends in the climate models and what has occurred over the past 10 winters. While it is still several weeks until the official start of winter on Dec. 21, several organizations are already unveiling their nationwide Winter 2022-2023 forecasts. This picture is consistent with long-term warming trends in the United States. Most of our wintry weather will come from clippers, which are often moisture starved, and storms that cut to our west, which are predominantly rain. Baldwin, 2002: Atmospheric Processes Governing the Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode/North Atlantic Oscillation. More is expected to the north and west, with 12-18 inches in areas like Leesburg, Dulles International Airport and Gaithersburg. The April precipitation outlook is uncertain: there are equal chances of below, equal to, or above normal precipitation statewide. Search Search. However, tornado and severe weather activity is more variable (noisier and harder to predict) than ordinary weather (think temperature and precipitation), and any ENSO signal is harder to see. Prevalent storm tracks along the northern branch of the jet stream typically cut to our west and/or redevelop as coastal storms to our north, and we are left either warm and rainy, or dry. Kim Shepard is an announcer at KUOW. The greater the difference, the stronger the La Nina is and more likely it is to influence weather patterns. The highest shift in the probabilities is from northwest Oregon and Washington east into the . Due to this, the CPC winter temperature and precipitation outlooks are consistent with typical La Nia impacts across much of the United States. Weather Today Weather Hourly 14 Day Forecast Yesterday/Past Weather Climate (Averages) Currently: 53 F. The largest signal is present in the south and southeast (including parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Missouri), except in Florida where the opposite relation is observed. 2021-2022 Winter Fuels Outlook: October 2021: PDF: Forecast Sensitivity of Carbon Dioxide Emissions to Temperatures: . The AOs cousin, the NAO, is technically a measurement of the differences in air pressure over the North Atlantic Ocean. Winter Weather Safety. Winter temperature differences from average (degrees F) during La Nia winters dating back to 1950. This La Nia footprint is pretty intuitive. We have been doing winter outlooks since 2005-2006 and have evaluated ourselves after the fact for the past 16 winters. Wea. This U.S. Winter Outlook 2021-2022 map for temperature shows warmer-than-average conditions across the South and most of the eastern U.S., while below average temperatures are favored for southeast Alaska and the Pacific Northwest eastward to the Northern Plains. Wednesday, May 17, 2023 - 9 a.m. - 12:00 p.m.: Register. Storm Team4 Chief Meteorologist Doug Kammerer predicts when we'll get the coldest weather of the season. Science, 293, 85-89. Western Washington got more rain and snow compared to average, with Snoqualmie reporting their highest snow depth in 10 years. Instead of only looking at individual weather events, its important to consider the environmental cues for the outbreak of severe weather. Get The 7 DMV newsletter in your inbox every weekday morning. The CPC winter forecasts to the right showthe most likely outcome where there is greater confidence, but this is not the only possible outcome. Cassou, C., 2008: Intraseasonal interaction between the Madden Julian Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation. So, unlike ENSO, which is stationary, the MJO is aneastward movingdisturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average. 2: Inside baseball: Further details of the ENSO relation. That means it's more appropriate to say that La Nia favors those conditions, rather than guaranteeing them. US Dept of Commerce An animation illustrating the organization of the MJO into its enhanced and suppressed convective phases during an MJO event during the spring of 2005. These are often referred to as double-dip La Nias. varies on a week-to-week basis). Wallace 1998: The Arctic Oscillation signature in wintertime geopotential height and temperature fields. Often, the near-normal category remains at 33.33%, and the category opposite the favored one is below 33.33% by the same amount that the favored category is above 33.33%. Measures of these tornado-friendly ingredients can be combined into indexes that are less noisy than actual tornado reports and let us see how the phases of ENSO make the environment more or less favorable for severe weather (footnote 1). NWS Last winter we called for slightly below-average snowfall (10 to 14 inches) and somewhat above-average temperatures (2 degrees above average), whereas snowfall was solidly below average (6 to 10 inches), and temperatures were slightly above average (1.1 degrees above average). La Nia is also sometimes called El Viejo (Old Man), anti-El Nio, or simply "a cold event" or "a cold episode". One thing leaning against this winter being warmer than normal is that 4 out of the 5moderate La Nia winterswere among the coldest third (the winters of 1955-56, 1970-71, 1984-85, and 2010-11) and the other one had near-normal temperatures (winter of 2020-21). In fact, the temperature forecasts were no better than flipping a coin, and precipitation forecasts were actually a little bit worse. Educational Resources On the other hand, stronger La Nia events (see below) are snowier across the Northwest, northern Rockies, western Canada, and the Alaska panhandle. Now imagine another bike rider entering the stage on the left and pedaling slowly across the stage, passing the stationary bike (ENSO), and exiting the stage at the right. WASHINGTON The Farmers' Almanac just released its 2021-22 winter forecast, and it predicts Washington is in for a fairly normal pattern. Equal chance display areas where confidence is low, so there is an equal chance of it being among the warmest third, near-normal, or among the coldest third. 1: The tornado environment index (TEI) and hail environment index (HEI) are functions of monthly averages of convective precipitation, convective available potential energy, and storm-relative helicity. His unchanging location is associated with the persistent changes intropical rainfalland winds that we havepreviously describedas being linked to ENSO. These analogues helped to loosely form the basis of our temperature and snow predictions because the weather in those years had some similarities to the factors below. New e-regulations for coastal rivers for 2022-23 season: Conversely, AO's negative phase has higher-than-average air pressure over the Arctic region and lower-than-average pressure over the northern Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Furthermore, it takes only one big snowstorm for us to reach or exceed our seasonal average. Box edges mark the 25thand 75thpercentiles, and whiskers extend 1 and a half times the interquartile range. In contrast, only fiveElNios winters (25%) have been followed by another ElNio winter. Mayfly Tracking, Latest In addition to being the local presence during national programs, she also voices many of the sponsorships you hear on KUOW and on our podcasts. For example, 9 of the 11 strong and moderate events show wetter-than-average conditions in the Pacific Northwestthough the intensity of the anomaly varieswhich is most winters, but not all. 6, 2023 | Next Release Date: . J. ENSOshifts the atmospheric circulation(notably, thejet stream) in ways that affect wintertemperature and precipitation over the U.S. They often noticed regular oscillations in winds (as defined from departures from average) between Singapore and Canton Island in the west-central equatorial Pacific (Madden and Julian, 1971; 1972; Zhang, 2005). In the Southwest, meteorologists predict that the lack of early-season precipitation will allow the ongoing wildfire season to extend all the way into December, an unusually late end to the season. Higgins, W., J. Schemm, W. Shi, and A. Leetmaa, 2000: Extreme precipitation events in the western United States related to tropical forcing. For more details on why these shifts were made, please see the local winter outlook tab below. The two-day meeting will be in person with an option to attend virtually using Zoom Webinar. Precipitation tends to be below-average across the southern tier of the United States and wetter than average across the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley. We can break up the snow pattern further and look at the weakest and strongest La Nia events. NOAA Climate.gov image using data fromESRLandNCEI. J. Strong MJO activity often dissects the planet into halves: one half within the enhanced convective phase and the other half in the suppressed convective phase. I expect December to be well above average for temperatures with almost no snowfall -- bad news if youre dreaming of a white Christmas. As air sinks from high altitudes, it warms and dries, which suppresses rainfall. The record setting winters of 2007-08 and 2008-09, where more than 90 inches of snow fell, were both La Nia winters. These are tricky forecasts, and we think well have our share of them this winter. It is this entire dipole structure, illustrated in Figure 3, that moves west to east with time in the Tropics, causing more cloudiness, rainfall, and even storminess in the enhanced convective phase, and more sunshine and dryness in the suppressed convective phase. The trend is an important component of seasonal temperature forecasts. This results in more upwelling of cold water off the Peruvian coast which results in even colder waters in the central and eastern equatorial waters. The Old Farmer's Almanac has released its winter forecasts, saying Western Washington can expect more rain than normal, with warmer temperatures and less snow. A pedestrian walks through the rain in November 2019 at Kerry Park in Seattle. J. Atmos. The federal budget deficit in 2022 exceeded $1 trillion and is widely expected to remain at that level for the foreseeable future. Consequently, locations in the mid-latitudes are more likely to experience outbreaks of frigid, polar air during winters when the AO is negative. Both phases of the NAO are associated with basin-wide changes in the intensity and location of the North Atlantic jet stream and storm track, and in large-scale modulations of the normal patterns of zonal and meridional heat and moisture transport, which in turn results in changes in temperature and precipitation patterns often extending from eastern North America to western and central Europe. (2015b) for more details. Winter precipitation differences from average (inches) during La Nia winters dating back to 1950. Realtime MJO information that is updated daily or weekly can be found on the NOAA CPCMJO webpage. Several times a year the MJO is a strong contributor to various extreme events in the United States, including Arctic air outbreaks during the winter months across the central and eastern portions of the United States. And especially, you know, Labor Day weekend is coming up and you know, people may be getting out and camping and so forth with some hot weather and a lot of dry wood out there. The green shading denotes conditions favorable for large-scale enhanced rainfall, and the brown shading shows conditions unfavorable for rainfall. There is more sinking air motion over the cooler waters of the central and eastern Pacific. Until recently, the only solid evidence showing that more tornadoes occur during La Nia conditions was for winter (January-March), when the ENSO signal is strongest, but average tornado activity is relatively low (Cook & Schaefer, 2008). Locally,wetter-than-normal is slightly favoredinsoutheast Minnesota, northeast Iowa, andwestern Wisconsin. But State Climatologist Nick Bond told KUOW's Angela King the almanacs forecasts for our region are about as good as flipping a coin. Climate,22, 4097-4116. But we have chosen factors that in the past as a guide, have proved to have at least some predictive value. At the top of the atmosphere, the winds reverse (i.e., diverge). Observations Release Date: Apr. Notice how the shading returns to the same location on the order of about 45 days. This study evaluates the simulation of wintertime (15 October, 2019, to 15 March, 2020) statistics of the central Arctic near-surface atmosphere and surface energy budget observed during the MOSAiC campaign with short-term forecasts from 7 state-of-the-art operational and experimental forecast systems. The effects are usually strongest in Northern Hemisphere winter. This is where I think we have the best chance at cold and snow. Overall, La Nina conditions are associated with enhanced U.S. tornado activity, but more detailed aspects of ENSO may also be relevant (Lee et al., 2012). Here's every snow forecast made for D.C. for the upcoming winter By Jason Samenow Updated December 3, 2021 at 4:24 p.m. EST | Published December 3, 2021 at 3:37 p.m. EST Improvement in the drought is expected from the Pacific Northwest east into Montana and Wyoming and across Wisconsin, Minnesota Arrowhead, northern Iowa, and northern Illinois. Because of the uncertainty involved, we give ranges and attempt to be as transparent as possible in conveying that these outlooks are indeed low-confidence. Time Zone. We graded our outlook a C+. The highest shift in probabilities is from Washington east into western Montana and from southeast Missouri northeast into Michigan, and in western Alaska. 2023 Realtor.com Forecast: 2022 Realtor.com Housing Data Expectations . Climate,15, 905-914. Shes been a part of the northwest news scene since the early 1990s. Such rising air motion in the atmosphere tends to increase condensation and rainfall. These second LaNia winters are highly variable with their temperatures, precipitation, and snowfall. But what's really going on in the climate system is that the tropical Pacific is cooling off and it's likely we'll have weak to moderate La Nina conditions. And the next few weeks look like some hot and dry weather for the Pacific Northwest. Nisqually Boardroom 1D2. . This failure of the typical pattern occurs because La Nia is never the only thing that influences the climate over the United States during the winter. While the upcoming La Nia is likely to be weaker than the last, other elements factor into the winter forecast especially during the second half of the season. Menu. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a measurement of the intensity and location of sea-surface temperature differences from normal in the North Pacific. Overall, we expect slightly to somewhat below-average snowfall. Expect 7-13 inches in the D.C. metro area and along the Interstate 95 corridor. Any concerns about wildfires this fall? Arent weather forecasts only reliable out to about eight to 10 days? Midwest La Nia Seasonal Snow Departures (23 Winters since 1949-50), Author:Michael K. Tippett and Chiara Lepore Precipitation Reports The coldest season officially begins with the winter solstice on Tuesday, Dec. 21, and the Almanac's long-range forecast suggests the spring equinox on March 20 could be more winter-like than spring-like. Past Weather in Seattle, Washington, USA Yesterday and Last 2 Weeks. Study says specific weather forecasts cant be made more than 10 days in advance. Often, though not always, the AO and NAO share the same phase, especially when averaged over the course of the winter. No outlook calls for substantially above-average snow or below-average temperatures. Annual Weather SummaryNovember 2022 to October 2023. This will highlight those regions that often have temperature or precipitation anomalies of the same sign. From the AGU monograph on the North Atlantic Oscillation, 293, 85-89. Already a member? Notably, the forecast calls for: The Great Lakes and Northeast can expect potent winter storms heavy snow, rain or a wintry mix of both during the second week of January, the final week of February and the second week of March. When the probability of the favored category becomes very large, such as 70% (which is very rare), the above rule for assigning the probabilities for the two non-favored categories becomes different. Parts of the Northeast, Ohio Valley and far western United States could see heavy rains and snow toward the end of February. So, for those snow totals, expect more snow than we've had the past two winters. Sea surface temperature pattern showing the warm phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (top). Below are the temperature, precipitation, and snow data for La Crosse, WI, and Rochester, MN. In our region, La Nias, particularly moderate to strong events, are often associated with dry, mild winters with modest snowfall. WASHINGTON - The. The publication expects January to start out mild for most of the country, becoming colder toward the middle or latter part of the month. Preparedness (En Espanol) Angela King: So first off, what is the Farmer's Almanac saying and how accurate has it been? - Coastal rivers and tributaries fishing rules update (Nov 2022), 2020|2019 |2018|2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014, Monofilament recovery and recycling program, Coastal rivers and tributaries fishing rules update, US Geological Survey National Water Information, NOAA Weather Service Northwest River Forecast Information, NOAA Calawah River 4-10 Day Trend Forecast graphic, Olympic National Park Current Road Conditions and Alerts, No anglers encountered 1/10, off 1/11, rivers out 1/12-13, Quillayute and Hoh winter steelhead creel surveys. Washington Department of Fish & Wildlife. When La Nia develops across the tropical central/eastern Pacific Ocean, it can affect areas thousands of miles away, including the United States. Precipitation will be above normal, with above-average snowfall in the far north and far south. That provides a significantly different picture, with the average of the latest events much warmer than the earlier ones. Imagine ENSO as a person riding astationaryexercise bike in the middle of a stage all day long. The MJO was first discovered in the early 1970s by Dr. Roland Madden and Dr. Paul Julian when they were studying tropical wind and pressure patterns. However, as is evident in these maps, there is a great deal of variability even among strong La Nia events. the Inland Northwest's long-range winter forecast in . However, these figures are based on about 20 different La Nia episodes, many of them from the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s, and we have not removed the longer-term trends from the temperature and precipitation data used here. Sci.,28, 702-708. Climate, 13, 1000-1016. The Farmers Almanac, established in 1818, publishes its annual extended winter forecast every August. Because a weak La Nia means that the forcing from the Pacific is weaker than normal, it may imply other mechanisms (e.g. This year, the polar vortex may also be weaker, according to AccuWeather. While a negative AO and NAO combination far from guarantees a cold and snowy period, our chances of a meaningful snow event are much greater than without it. This seasonal U.S. Drought Outlook map for November 2020 through January. Snowfall departure from average for weaker La Nia winters (1950-2009). Blue shading shows Averaged statewide, both temperatures and precipitation were near-normal, with temperatures +0.9F above the 1981-2010 normal and precipitation at 102% of normal. 2000, Cassou, 2008, Lin et al. And that is consistent with forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center of NOAA. US Geological Survey National Water Information Our Office Local Storm Report, Decision Support Science,287, 2002-2004. And I was not convinced that they had much skill in their forecasts. Last year we got just 5.4 inches with the biggest snowfall of 2.3 inches. That water is also cooler this year. Note that even the most. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index is based on the surface sea-level pressure difference between the Subtropical (Azores) High and the Subpolar Low. For Washington, Oregon and Idaho, the Farmers Almanac winter forecast calls for "typical winter temperatures and precipitation.". The effects are usually strongest in Northern Hemisphere winter. La Nia literally means "the little girl." I actually looked at their forecasts from some years ago -- 13 winters, their monthly precipitation totals, and average temperatures relative to normal for Western Washington and Western Oregon. January is looking to be below average for temperatures, and this is the month I think we see most of our storms, especially in the last two weeks of the month. The Nio-3.4 index has a 66% chance of reaching a value less than -1.0C duringNovember 2021 - January 2022, but only a 14% chance of being below -1.5C. La Nia is likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2021-22 (~90% chance) and into spring 2022 (~50% chance during March-May). Wetter-than-normal conditions are favored from the Pacific Northwest east into Montana and Wyoming, from northern Arkansas and Tennesee north into the Great Lakes and northeast into New York and Vermont,and in western Alaska. Besides La Nia, this winter will also be affected by: The following video highlights from NOAA's 2021-2022 Winter Outlook that provideseasonalpredictions for temperature, precipitation, and drought. The status of the PDO between 1950 and this year, shown at bottom, indicates a predominantly positive phase from about 1978 to 1998 and a negative phase since 1999. Thus, at its peak, a moderate-strength La Nia is favored" this winter. When it is strongly positive, it often correlates with a cold and stormy pattern for the Mid-Atlantic. Winter temperatures have steadily risen in Washington over the past 150 years, and snowfall amounts are in decline. The odds are relatively high on the three-tiered scale, with the CPC forecasting the probability of below normal temperatures between 40 and 50%. So the landscape has dried out. References All rights reserved, Metropolitan Police Department (DC Police / MPD), Newly Renovated DC Police Memorial Unveiled, Montgomery County Man Charged With Raping Girl, Watch News4: Live and Replays on NBC4 App, Peacock, Roku, Samsung TV Plus & Xumo Play. (2012) and Allen et al. Winter officially starts in just three weeks (using the Dec. 1 meteorological definition), and its time for our annual seasonal outlook.

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